🇮🇹 Italy 1–1 United States 🇺🇸

2006 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €378M · value #1 · Elo #7

1–1draw

value €40M · value #22 · Elo #15

Model P(result)

23.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.10

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

163

1955 vs 1792

Stage

Group

2006 World Cup