🇩🇪 Germany 0–2 Italy 🇮🇹

2006 World Cup · Semi-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €181M · value #9 · Elo #10

0–2Italy win

value €378M · value #1 · Elo #7

Model P(result)

45.9%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.12

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1964 vs 2028

Stage

Semi-final

2006 World Cup