🇳🇱 Netherlands 5–1 Spain 🇪🇸

2014 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €208M · value #11 · Elo #5

5–1Netherlands win

value €622M · value #1 · Elo #2

Model P(result)

20.7%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.27

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

122

1985 vs 2107

Stage

Group

2014 World Cup