🇲🇦 Morocco 2–2 Spain 🇪🇸

2018 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €129M · value #21 · Elo #24

2–2draw

value €1034M · value #2 · Elo #3

Model P(result)

14.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.75

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

355

1695 vs 2050

Stage

Group

2018 World Cup