🇷🇺 Russia 1–1 Spain 🇪🇸

2018 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €162M · value #18 · Elo #28

1–1draw

value €1034M · value #2 · Elo #3

Model P(result)

15.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.68

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

337

1690 vs 2027

Stage

Round of 16

2018 World Cup