🇵🇹 Portugal 3–3 Spain 🇪🇸

2018 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €494M · value #8 · Elo #6

3–3draw

value €1034M · value #2 · Elo #3

Model P(result)

26.2%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.93

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1968 vs 2043

Stage

Group

2018 World Cup