🇵🇹 Portugal 1–1 Iran 🇮🇷

2018 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €494M · value #8 · Elo #6

1–1draw

value €48M · value #28 · Elo #18

Model P(result)

22.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.15

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

183

1985 vs 1802

Stage

Group

2018 World Cup