🇭🇷 Croatia 2–1 England 🏴
2018 World Cup · Semi-final. tournament · tables
🇭🇷 Croatia value €364M · value #10 · Elo #14
Ivan Rakitić €50M Ivan Perišić €40M Mateo Kovačić €30M 2–1 Croatia win
🏴 England value €874M · value #5 · Elo #7
Harry Kane €150M Dele Alli €100M Raheem Sterling €90M Goals
Croatia ▲ England ▼ 0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90' 105' 120' Ivan Perišić 68' 68 Perišić Mario Mandžukić 109' 109 Mandžukić Kieran Trippier 5' 5 Trippier
Starting line-ups
List Pitch
🇭🇷 Croatia
Danijel Subašić · GK 23 Subašić Šime Vrsaljko · RB 2 Vrsaljko Domagoj Vida · CB 21 Vida Ivan Strinić · LB 3 Strinić Dejan Lovren · CB 6 Lovren Luka Modrić · AM 10 Modrić Marcelo Brozović · CM 11 Brozović Ivan Rakitić · CM 7 Rakitić Mario Mandžukić · CF 17 Mandžukić Ante Rebić · RW 18 Rebić Ivan Perišić · LW 4 Perišić 🏴 England
Jordan Pickford · GK 1 Pickford Kyle Walker · CB 2 Walker John Stones · CB 5 Stones Harry Maguire · CB 6 Maguire Kieran Trippier · RM 12 Trippier Ashley Young · LM 18 Young Dele Alli · CM 20 Alli Jesse Lingard · CM 7 Lingard Jordan Henderson · DM 8 Henderson Raheem Sterling · CF 10 Sterling Harry Kane · CF 9 Kane Players sit in vertical bands (GK · defence · midfield · attack) by their listed position — no
left/right placement is inferred. Order within a band is squad-sheet order, not a formation.
Pre-match model (Elo→Poisson, 90-min W/D/L)
🇭🇷 Croatia 30.2% draw 26.7% 43.1% England 🏴
Model P(result)
30.2%
P of the observed 90-min outcome
Upset rank
#181
of 487 · −log₂ P
Upset index
1.73
−log₂ P(observed)
Croatia's run W 🇳🇬 2–0 Nigeria, Group W 🇦🇷 3–0 Argentina, Group W 🇮🇸 2–1 Iceland, Group D 🇩🇰 1–1 Denmark, Round of 16 D 🇷🇺 2–2 Russia, Quarter-final W 🏴 2–1 England, Semi-final L 🇫🇷 2–4 France, Final England's run W 🇹🇳 2–1 Tunisia, Group W 🇵🇦 6–1 Panama, Group L 🇧🇪 0–1 Belgium, Group D 🇨🇴 1–1 Colombia, Round of 16 W 🇸🇪 2–0 Sweden, Quarter-final L 🇭🇷 1–2 Croatia, Semi-final L 🇧🇪 0–2 Belgium, Third place
Head-to-head at the World Cup