🇪🇨 Ecuador 1–0 Croatia 🇭🇷

2002 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €0M · value #9 · Elo #27

1–0Ecuador win

value €0M · value #7 · Elo #7

Model P(result)

13.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.90

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

197

1694 vs 1891

Stage

Group

2002 World Cup