🇫🇷 France 3–1 Spain 🇪🇸

2006 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €270M · value #5 · Elo #5

3–1France win

value €329M · value #4 · Elo #6

Model P(result)

27.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.87

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1946 vs 2012

Stage

Round of 16

2006 World Cup