🇪🇸 Spain 2–0 France 🇫🇷 2026 · live
2026 World Cup · Semi-final. tournament · tables
🇪🇸 Spain value €1223M · value #3 · Elo #1
Lamine Yamal €200M Pedri €150M Pau Cubarsí €80M 2–0 Spain win
🇫🇷 France value €1523M · value #1 · Elo #3
Kylian Mbappé €180M Michael Olise €150M Désiré Doué €120M Goals
Spain ▲ France ▼ 0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90' Mikel Oyarzabal 22' (pen) 22 Oyarzabal Pedro Porro 58' 58 Porro
Starting line-ups
List Pitch
🇪🇸 Spain
Unai Simón · GK 23 Simón Pedro Porro · RB 12 Porro Aymeric Laporte · CB 14 Laporte Pau Cubarsí · CB 22 Cubarsí Marc Cucurella · LB 24 Cucurella Dani Olmo · CM 10 Olmo Álex Baena · LF 15 Baena Rodri · DM 16 Rodri Lamine Yamal · RF 19 Yamal Fabián Ruiz · CM 8 Ruiz Mikel Oyarzabal · CF 21 Oyarzabal 🇫🇷 France
Mike Maignan · GK 16 Maignan William Saliba · CB 17 Saliba Lucas Digne · LB 3 Digne Dayot Upamecano · CB 4 Upamecano Jules Koundé · RB 5 Koundé Michael Olise · AM 11 Olise Adrien Rabiot · CM 14 Rabiot Aurélien Tchouaméni · CM 8 Tchouaméni Kylian Mbappé · CF 10 Mbappé Bradley Barcola · LW 12 Barcola Ousmane Dembélé · RW 7 Dembélé Players sit in vertical bands (GK · defence · midfield · attack) by their listed position — no
left/right placement is inferred. Order within a band is squad-sheet order, not a formation.
Pre-match model (Elo→Poisson, 90-min W/D/L)
🇪🇸 Spain 40.4% draw 26.9% 32.7% France 🇫🇷
Model P(result)
40.4%
P of the observed 90-min outcome
Upset rank
#223
of 487 · −log₂ P
Upset index
1.31
−log₂ P(observed)
Spain's run D 🇨🇻 0–0 Cape Verde, Group W 🇸🇦 4–0 Saudi Arabia, Group W 🇺🇾 1–0 Uruguay, Group W 🇦🇹 3–0 Austria, Round of 32 W 🇵🇹 1–0 Portugal, Round of 16 W 🇧🇪 2–1 Belgium, Quarter-final W 🇫🇷 2–0 France, Semi-final France's run W 🇸🇳 3–1 Senegal, Group W 🇮🇶 3–0 Iraq, Group W 🇳🇴 4–1 Norway, Group W 🇸🇪 3–0 Sweden, Round of 32 W 🇵🇾 1–0 Paraguay, Round of 16 W 🇲🇦 2–0 Morocco, Quarter-final L 🇪🇸 0–2 Spain, Semi-final L 🏴 4–6 England, Third place
Head-to-head at the World Cup