🇿🇦 South Africa 1–1 Mexico 🇲🇽

2010 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €24M · value #30 · Elo #29

1–1draw

value €88M · value #16 · Elo #8

Model P(result)

17.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.55

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

305

1593 vs 1898

Stage

Group

2010 World Cup