🇪🇸 Spain 1–0 Paraguay 🇵🇾

2010 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €650M · value #1 · Elo #1

1–0Spain win

value €71M · value #22 · Elo #18

Model P(result)

77.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.37

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

314

2101 vs 1787

Stage

Quarter-final

2010 World Cup