🇷🇸 Serbia 1–0 Germany 🇩🇪

2010 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €188M · value #10 · Elo #13

1–0Serbia win

value €290M · value #7 · Elo #5

Model P(result)

14.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.82

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

188

1798 vs 1986

Stage

Group

2010 World Cup