🇪🇸 Spain 1–0 Germany 🇩🇪

2010 World Cup · Semi-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €650M · value #1 · Elo #1

1–0Spain win

value €290M · value #7 · Elo #5

Model P(result)

42.5%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.24

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

2109 vs 2068

Stage

Semi-final

2010 World Cup