🇩🇪 Germany 4–1 England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

2010 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €290M · value #7 · Elo #5

4–1Germany win

value €448M · value #2 · Elo #4

Model P(result)

34.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.54

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1955 vs 1970

Stage

Round of 16

2010 World Cup