🇦🇷 Argentina 1–0 Belgium 🇧🇪

2014 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €392M · value #4 · Elo #4

1–0Argentina win

value €348M · value #6 · Elo #15

Model P(result)

56.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.83

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

134

2063 vs 1929

Stage

Quarter-final

2014 World Cup