🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador 🇪🇨 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €522M · value #11 · Elo #35

1–0Ivory Coast win

value €369M · value #18 · Elo #9

Model P(result)

9.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

3.35

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

243

1695 vs 1938

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup