🇲🇽 Mexico 2–0 Ecuador 🇪🇨 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 32. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €192M · value #27 · Elo #18

2–0Mexico win

value €369M · value #18 · Elo #9

Model P(result)

37.9%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.40

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1912 vs 1902

Stage

Round of 32

2026 World Cup