🇪🇨 Ecuador 2–1 Germany 🇩🇪 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €369M · value #18 · Elo #9

2–1Ecuador win

value €947M · value #5 · Elo #10

Model P(result)

24.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.03

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1864 vs 1954

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup