🇳🇴 Norway 4–1 Iraq 🇮🇶 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €590M · value #9 · Elo #11

4–1Norway win

value €21M · value #46 · Elo #39

Model P(result)

76.9%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.38

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

307

1914 vs 1607

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup