🇳🇴 Norway 2–1 Brazil 🇧🇷 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €590M · value #9 · Elo #11

2–1Norway win

value €928M · value #6 · Elo #5

Model P(result)

23.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.08

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1934 vs 2031

Stage

Round of 16

2026 World Cup