🇧🇪 Belgium 3–2 Senegal 🇸🇳 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 32. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €548M · value #10 · Elo #15

3–2Belgium win

value €478M · value #12 · Elo #19

Model P(result)

42.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.23

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1884 vs 1842

Stage

Round of 32

2026 World Cup