🇪🇸 Spain 2–1 Belgium 🇧🇪 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1223M · value #3 · Elo #1

2–1Spain win

value €548M · value #10 · Elo #15

Model P(result)

67.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.58

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

216

2177 vs 1961

Stage

Quarter-final

2026 World Cup