🇧🇪 Belgium 3–2 Japan 🇯🇵

2018 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €754M · value #6 · Elo #8

3–2Belgium win

value €73M · value #25 · Elo #26

Model P(result)

75.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.41

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

291

1998 vs 1707

Stage

Round of 16

2018 World Cup