🇲🇽 Mexico 2–3 England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €192M · value #27 · Elo #18

2–3England win

value €1358M · value #2 · Elo #4

Model P(result)

51.7%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.95

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

103

1943 vs 2046

Stage

Round of 16

2026 World Cup