Every 2026 squad, ranked by how hard its current core will be to replace by 2030. Composite = 0.5·z(weighted age) + 0.3·(last-dance minutes share) + 0.2·(1 − debutant share), z within 2026 — the exact formula, no tuning. Squad age is minutes-weighted (100% dob coverage among players with minutes); “last dance” = players aged ≥31 on 2030-06-01.
| # | Squad | Cliff | Wtd age | z(age) | Last-dance min | Debutants |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇮🇷 Iran | +1.81 | 32.1 | +2.84 | 95% | 46% |
| 2 | 🇨🇻 Cape Verde | +1.28 | 31.1 | +2.11 | 76% | 100% |
| 3 | 🇨🇴 Colombia | +1.11 | 30.4 | +1.55 | 87% | 65% |
| 4 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | +0.96 | 29.9 | +1.17 | 79% | 31% |
| 5 | 🇶🇦 Qatar | +0.94 | 30.0 | +1.28 | 67% | 50% |
| 6 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | +0.93 | 29.7 | +1.09 | 83% | 31% |
| 7 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | +0.83 | 29.6 | +0.97 | 78% | 42% |
| 8 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | +0.79 | 29.7 | +1.03 | 85% | 88% |
| 9 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | +0.75 | 29.5 | +0.91 | 62% | 46% |
| 10 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | +0.73 | 29.5 | +0.88 | 56% | 42% |
| 11 | 🏴 Scotland | +0.68 | 29.5 | +0.90 | 76% | 100% |
| 12 | 🇵🇦 Panama | +0.61 | 29.2 | +0.64 | 80% | 73% |
| 13 | 🇨🇼 Curaçao | +0.56 | 29.2 | +0.71 | 70% | 100% |
| 14 | 🇨🇩 DR Congo | +0.56 | 29.1 | +0.61 | 85% | 100% |
| 15 | 🇺🇾 Uruguay | +0.56 | 29.0 | +0.51 | 63% | 42% |
| 16 | 🇦🇹 Austria | +0.55 | 29.2 | +0.65 | 76% | 100% |
| 17 | 🇸🇳 Senegal | +0.52 | 28.9 | +0.44 | 68% | 50% |
| 18 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | +0.50 | 28.9 | +0.46 | 61% | 58% |
| 19 | 🇭🇹 Haiti | +0.41 | 28.9 | +0.45 | 62% | 100% |
| 20 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | +0.38 | 28.6 | +0.20 | 61% | 54% |
| 21 | 🇯🇴 Jordan | +0.31 | 28.6 | +0.21 | 66% | 100% |
| 22 | 🇩🇪 Germany | +0.29 | 28.5 | +0.13 | 50% | 65% |
| 23 | 🇳🇿 New Zealand | +0.23 | 28.4 | +0.08 | 57% | 92% |
| 24 | 🇵🇾 Paraguay | +0.18 | 28.4 | +0.06 | 51% | 100% |
| 25 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | +0.17 | 28.0 | -0.25 | 67% | 54% |
| 26 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | +0.15 | 28.1 | -0.18 | 38% | 38% |
| 27 | 🇯🇵 Japan | +0.15 | 27.9 | -0.31 | 67% | 50% |
| 28 | 🇹🇳 Tunisia | +0.09 | 27.9 | -0.30 | 62% | 73% |
| 29 | 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | +0.09 | 28.1 | -0.15 | 55% | 100% |
| 30 | 🇬🇭 Ghana | +0.05 | 27.8 | -0.41 | 59% | 58% |
| 31 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | -0.05 | 27.5 | -0.59 | 54% | 62% |
| 32 | 🇩🇿 Algeria | -0.07 | 27.7 | -0.47 | 49% | 88% |
| 33 | 🇫🇷 France | -0.08 | 27.4 | -0.71 | 60% | 50% |
| 34 | 🇨🇦 Canada | -0.11 | 27.3 | -0.75 | 54% | 50% |
| 35 | 🇳🇴 Norway | -0.14 | 27.4 | -0.65 | 62% | 100% |
| 36 | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | -0.19 | 27.3 | -0.77 | 66% | 100% |
| 37 | 🇺🇸 United States | -0.23 | 27.0 | -0.96 | 50% | 50% |
| 38 | 🇪🇨 Ecuador | -0.24 | 27.2 | -0.86 | 28% | 50% |
| 39 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | -0.30 | 27.0 | -0.95 | 52% | 92% |
| 40 | 🇪🇸 Spain | -0.31 | 26.7 | -1.17 | 59% | 54% |
| 41 | 🇿🇦 South Africa | -0.33 | 27.0 | -0.95 | 48% | 100% |
| 42 | 🇹🇷 Turkey | -0.35 | 27.0 | -1.00 | 52% | 100% |
| 43 | 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | -0.35 | 26.9 | -1.04 | 52% | 92% |
| 44 | 🏴 England | -0.36 | 26.9 | -1.08 | 42% | 69% |
| 45 | 🇮🇶 Iraq | -0.37 | 27.0 | -0.99 | 41% | 100% |
| 46 | 🇲🇦 Morocco | -0.56 | 26.3 | -1.49 | 39% | 65% |
| 47 | 🇦🇺 Australia | -0.81 | 25.7 | -1.98 | 36% | 65% |
| 48 | 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast | -0.81 | 25.8 | -1.87 | 40% | 100% |
Formula also recorded on /methodology. Companion to the paper-vs-performance scatter and per-squad succession on /compare.