🇧🇷 Brazil 1–1 Croatia 🇭🇷

2022 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1142M · value #2 · Elo #1

1–1draw

value €377M · value #11 · Elo #11

Model P(result)

21.2%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.24

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

215

2150 vs 1935

Stage

Quarter-final

2022 World Cup