🇪🇸 Spain 3–0 Austria 🇦🇹 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Round of 32. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1223M · value #3 · Elo #1

3–0Spain win

value €245M · value #24 · Elo #21

Model P(result)

77.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.38

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

308

2144 vs 1836

Stage

Round of 32

2026 World Cup