🇪🇸 Spain 1–0 Uruguay 🇺🇾 2026 · live

2026 World Cup · Group. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €1223M · value #3 · Elo #1

1–0Spain win

value €359M · value #19 · Elo #16

Model P(result)

74.6%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.42

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

283

2134 vs 1851

Stage

Group

2026 World Cup