🇪🇸 Spain 1–0 Portugal 🇵🇹

2010 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €650M · value #1 · Elo #1

1–0Spain win

value €277M · value #8 · Elo #10

Model P(result)

63.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.66

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

185

2086 vs 1901

Stage

Round of 16

2010 World Cup