🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1–0 Ecuador 🇪🇨

2006 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €342M · value #3 · Elo #3

1–0England win

value €18M · value #27 · Elo #27

Model P(result)

65.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.61

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

202

1984 vs 1782

Stage

Round of 16

2006 World Cup