World Cup squad quality vs performance

Every squad at every World Cup since 2002, its quality frozen at kick-off, and how far it actually got versus what a pure ratings model expected. Live through the 2026 final.

2026 bracket →Compare squads

Biggest over-performer

Morocco

2022 · +0.78 vs Elo-expected

Biggest under-performer

France

2002 · -0.81 as champions

Biggest shock

Saudi Arabia 2–1 Argentina

Live · road to the final

full bracket →

Spain 2 — 0 FranceSF · model Spain 54% ✓Argentina 2 — 1 EnglandSF · model Argentina 61% ✓

The final · Sunday 19:00 UTC

Spain v Argentina

Spain 54.6%

locked forecast · 90-min: Spain 41.1% / draw 26.9% / Argentina 32.0% · draw → ET/pens

🔒 locked: Spain 54.6% to lift the trophy

SF: Spain 2–0 France · Argentina 2–1 England

Headline finding — four of the six biggest under-performers in 25 years are reigning champions: France 2002, Germany 2018, Spain 2014 and Italy 2010, each dumped out earlier than a squad of their pedigree should.

Explore

Best squad ever →

#1 on paper: Spain 2014 (+2.91)

All-time shocks →

#1: Saudi Arabia 2–1 Argentina (2022, P 0.5%)

Champions →

Spain 2010 sank to 19.9% — and still won

Chalk bracket →

the Squad value favourite wins 4 of 5 WCs

One-man teams →

Messi at 38: 52% of Argentina's top-5 goals

Fallen giants →

Neymar: €180M → €8M (−96%)

Drama index →

latest winner of the century: Youri Tielemans 120+5' (2026)

Unofficial title →

current holder: Turkey

Squad duels — 25 years of pathway change

Australia · 2006 → 2026

1,887 → 588

Top-5 apps collapse as the golden generation fades. compare →

England · 2006 → 2026

4,675 → 4,891

A superpower holds its top-flight base for two decades. compare →

Brazil · 2002 → 2026

1,176 → 4,503

The migration to Europe — a home-grown squad becomes Europe-built. compare →

Expected vs actual

Every squad's Elo-expected finish against what it actually did. full over/under →

Each dot is one squad (2002–2026) — hover/tap for detail, scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to pan, double-click to reset. Above the dashed line = over-performed the Elo baseline; below = under-performed. Click a dot for its squad.